基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿生产过程中人因可靠性分析

基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿生产过程中人因可靠性分析摘要煤炭行业，作为我国的主导能源，其生产安全的重要性不言而喻。研究显示，人为失误是安全事故的主要诱因。煤矿安全事故调查报告常常忽略了操作人员的心理状态、身体状况以及企业管理氛围等人为因素，导致事故原因分析缺乏准确性。因此，基于现有的事故报告，对煤矿安全事故中的人为因素进行可靠性分析，显得尤为重要。本研究旨在深入探讨煤矿安全事故中的人为因素，首先利用分类系统(HFACS)深入研究分析山西煤矿的安全事故报告，然后利用极大似然估计方法来构建安全事故人因的贝叶斯网络模型，从参数的独立性确保模型的可靠性。通过研究发现直接诱因是作业人员个人准备不足而导致的，如果挖其根本原因，则是不合理的运行计划、管理员监督的缺失以及资源管理的不善。此外，操作者的工作状态也有着不可推卸的的责任。这些发现未以后预防煤矿安全事故提供了非常有价值的参考和建议。关键词贝叶斯网络：人因可靠性：煤矿安全：人因分析和分类系统Analysis of Human Factor Reliability in CoalMine Production Process Based on BayesianNetworkAbstractThe coal industry,as the dominant energy source in China,underscores theself-evident importance of production safety.Research indicates that humanerror is the primary contributor to safety incidents.However,currentinvestigation reports on coal mine safety incidents in China often overlookhuman factors such as the psychological state of operators,physical conditions,and corporate management atmosphere,which directly affects the accuracy ofaccident cause analysis.Therefore,starting from existing accident reports,it isof utmost significance to analyze the reliability of human factors behind coalmine safety incidents.To delve deeper into the human factors behind coal mine safety incidents,this study first employs the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System(HFACS)and uses safety incident reports from Shanxi coal mines as researchsamples.By applying the maximum likelihood estimation method,weconstructed a Bayesian network model specifically tailored to human factors incoal mine safety incidents.Subsequently,we rigorously validated the modelusing entropy weight and relative error methods,confirming its reliability fromboth parameter independence and consistency perspectives.The researchfindings reveal that inadequate personal preparation of operators is a directcontributor to their unsafe behaviors,while deeper reasons include unreasonableoperational plans,lack of supervision,and inadequate resource management.-Ⅱ-Furthermore,the operator's state significantly influences their unsafe behaviors.These discoveries provide valuable references and suggestions for preventingcoal mine safety incidents.Keywords Bayesian Network Human Factor Reliability Coal Mine Safety,Human Factors Analysis and Classification System-川-目录摘要Abstract..Π第1章绪论1.1课题背景11.2研究意义21.3 HFACS的研究现状.31.3.1国内研究现状。31.3.2国外研究现状1.4贝叶斯网络在事故分析中的研究现状…。1.4.1国内研究现状.41.4.2贝叶斯网络在事故分析中的国外研究现状1.5本文主要研究内容第2章贝叶斯网络因果图构建…2.1 HFACS基本框架分析.92.2煤矿安全事故人因的贝叶斯网络因果图构建2.2.1基于理论的人因贝叶斯网络因果图122.2.2基于案例的人因贝叶斯网络因果图.142.3煤矿安全事故人因的完整贝叶斯网络因果图16第3章贝叶斯网络参数获得…183.1事故报告中体现的贝叶斯网络参数183.2节点的独立性检验193.3参数的灵敏度分析..20第4章人因可靠性因素间的影响关系224.1作业人员状态对不安全行为的影响224.2不安全行为的前提条件对不安全行为的影响关系.234.3不安全监督对不安全行为的影响关系254.4组织管理对不安全行为的影响关系264.5推理煤矿安全事故深层次人因可靠性27结论29致谢30参考文献..31附录A外文文献.34附录B外文文献翻译41-v-