产业内贸易对经济周期协动性的影响——基于中国与东亚的实证研究

The Influence of Intra-Industry Trade on BusinessCycle-Synchronization in East AsiaAbstractThe wish of establishing a community of corporate future in east Asia has never stopped.From the vision of the east Asia co-prosperity sphere put forward by Japan in 1938,to thepreparation and construction of the east Asia regional forum,east Asia summit,Brics,G20and One Belt And One Road,east Asia has been taking more actions to deepen regionaleconomic integration.Through a series of efforts,the interdependent international relevanceamong China and east Asia have been strengthened day by day.This cooperative relationshiphas continuously penetrated into the economic improvement of every country (region).According to Frankel and Rose on the study of the business cycle synchronization,factorswhich contribute to it including the international trade,the investment intensity,the industrialcomposition,etc.The influence of international trade is an significant element,intra-industrytrade has gradually substituted industry become a dominant way of trade in east Asia.Therefore,this article chooses the synchronization of business cycle as the main researchtarget,and empirically researches its effect on the synchronization of business cycle byobserving the changes in the level of intra-industry trade.This paper starts from the analysis of static GL index of intra-industry trade,GL index ofdifferent factor products and classification index.Secondly,on the basis of verifying theconvergence of east Asian regional business cycles by drawing diagrams,H-P filtering model,calculating Pearson coefficient and granger causality test,the co-mobility of synchronizationbusiness cycle is measured by C-M business cycle synchronization index.In the last empiricalpart,a panel model is constructed with the economic cycle synchronization index as theexplained variable,intra-industry trade level as the main explanatory variable,and bilateraltrade intensity and bilateral investment intensity as the control variables.A series ofregression analysis was carried out to empirically study the influence of overall intra-industrytrade,different factor products and different types of intra-industry trade on the business cycle.Based on the above discussion,relevant policy Suggestions are putting forward.Keywords:Intra-Industry Trade;Horizontal Type;Business Cycle Synchronization;Regression Analysis