不同时滞可燃物含水率预测模型精度的研究

Research on the moisture content of forest combustibles has always been aninternational frontier and hotspot,and there are many factors affecting the moisture contentof forest combustibles.In order to study the influence of different time delays on theaccuracy of the prediction model of combustible moisture content,Pinus sylvestris var.Mongolica,Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla in the Daxing'anling area in spring 2010.Betula platyphylla stands for continuous observation of the moisture content ofcombustibles,and analyzes the influence of different time delays on the accuracy of theprediction model of combustible moisture content,in order to improve the predictionaccuracy of meteorological elements method and more accurately predict forest fireinsurance Scientific basis.In the four plots,each plot was divided into three groupsaccording to different time lags of 1h,10h and 100h.SPSS software was used to study theeffect of different time lags on the moisture content of combustibles.The results show that:(1)When predicting the moisture content of surface dead combustibles,it should be basedon different significant meteorological factors as the variables in the modeling prediction;the daily precipitation and R,the previous day precipitation and Ral and the first 2 Thedaily average relative humidity Ha2 is the most important factor affecting the change ofwater content.(2)Different time lags of the same forest type,the difference of 1 lag,10 lagand 100 lag in Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica forest,Xing'an larch forest and birch forestwas significant;the difference between 1 time lag and 10 lag in Yanghua forest was notsignificant,and 100 The time lag is significant.There was no significant differencebetween Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica and Betula platyphylla in the same time delay,andthere was no significant difference between Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica and Betulaplatyphylla.The difference between Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica and Xing'an larch andBetula platyphylla at 10 lags was not significant.The difference in birch was significant;the individual forest types with 100 lags were not significantly different from eachother.Therefore,the model for predicting the moisture content of combustibles with timelag is highly accurate.key words:Daxinganling region fuel moisture sampling methods model accuracy time lag