我国银行信贷与房地产价格之间的动态关系的研究

AbstractWith the continuous improvement of China's market economy,China's financial marketsand the real estate market are showing a booming landscape,especially in recent years,realestate has gradually become the consumption of our residents just need to stimulate economicgrowth and create an important growth point of GDP Pillars,and all this is inseparable fromthe financial industry and bank credit.In this paper,we combine the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of the bankcredit and real estate price data collected in our country,and use the software to carry out unitroot test,cointegration test,vector error correction and Granger causality test.In the long run,the price of real estate and the bank's financial credit business is not particularly stablerelationship.There is a long-term cointegration relationship between bank credit and realestate price,and there is a causal relationship between the long-term equilibrium level,andthe operation of house price in the short term is constrained by the long-term equilibriumrelationship of credit variable.The adjusted regression equation of error correction modelshows that short-term fluctuations in bank credit will not have a significant impact on realestate prices.And through the cointegration model analysis and Granger causality analysis ofthe comprehensive analysis,we finally get a long process of changes in financial credit andreal estate price changes in the cointegration model,found that long-term financial credit andreal estate prices exist between the positive relationship.However,in the short term,bankcredit directly affects China's real estate prices,and the impact on real estate prices dominate.The changes in credit are multifaceted,and in many cases are policy-oriented,not justmarket-driven,so the variables that affect credit are uncertain,and the policies and regulations,interim controls,economic trends,interest rates,etc.Variables,found that the actual growthrate of bank credit significantly affected the real price growth rate of change,that is,bankcredit significantly affect the real estate prices,and vice versa is not established.On the basisof this,this paper makes use of the historical data of real estate prices in China,and uses twokinds of decomposition methods commonly used in HP filtering and BP filtering.The twomethods pay attention to the decomposition of long-term trend elements and thedecomposition of cyclic trend elements.With the passage of time,found in recent years,thereal estate sales price index growth rate gradually larger.Key words:Bank Credit Real Estate prices Dynamic Relationship