汕头市工业经济的时间序列分析及预测

北京理工大学珠海学院2020届本科生毕业论文Time series analysis and prediction of Shantou's industrial economyAbstractThe development of industry has been a hot topic in recent years.As an importantpart of the economy,it plays a very direct role in stimulating the economic growth.In this paper,the data of industrial output value,gross regional product and man-ufacturing output value from 1978 to 2018 and from 2000 to 2017 are selected tostudy.First,the logarithmic differential operation of the industrial output valueseries is carried out,and the ARIMA (1,1,0)model is fitted to predict the industrialoutput value in the next decade.Then with practice found that the gross value ofindustrial output and between GDP,gross industrial output value and there may besome relationship between processing and manufacturing output,thus the relationsbetween the two to establish model,adopt the stationarity test,cointegration testand error correction method for fitting,end up with the development of industryis not only to a certain extent,driven by the long-term and short-term economicgrowth,but also promote the development of local processing and manufacturing.Keywords:Total industrial output value ARIMA model Forecast error correc-tion model