财务风险预警模型的实证研究——以我国房地产行业为例

财务风险预警模型的实证研究一一以我国房地产行业为例摘要房地产行业是一国经济繁荣必不可少的一环，近年来，我国房地产行业的火热发展在推进城市化发展、降低农业人口比重等方面作出了重大贡献，起到了至关重要的作用。在此背景下，通过P0实现上市的房地产公司如雨后春笋。在国家宏观经济管控下，我国房地产行业的发展面临着销售量下跌、金融过度杠杆化、房地产功能失调等问题，加速了企业财务危机的形成，对企业发展形成了较大阻力。财务危机的形成并不是一朝一夕的事，而是一个循序渐进的过程。因此，对于房地产行业上市公司来说，财务风险管理是不可小觑的问题之一，建立完善的财务预警模型具有重要的意义和价值，只有财务稳健的企业在未来才能行稳致远。基于以上背景，本文采取理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法来研究我国房地产行业上市公司的财务风险预警问题。在理论方面，本文对国内外相关研究进行分析总结，归纳出我国房地产行业陷入财务危机的原因，分析不同财务预警模型的优缺点。在实证方面，本文以2001-2021年间的沪深两市A股房地产上市公司作为研究对象，参考相关文献研究，从偿债能力、营运能力、发展能力、盈利能力和现金流能力选取了24个具有代表性的财务指标，从会计信息质量和股权结构选取了4个具有代表性的非财务指标，构建财务风险预警模型指标体系。通过统计软件SPSS26.0提取显著影响指标，建立Logistic回归模型，并将模型加以运用。研究得出以下结论：我国房地产行业的大多数财务指标均不服从正态分布，盈利能力和偿债能力是构成我国房地产公司财务风险的两大主要因素，预警模型具有一定的现实意义。最后根据研究结果提出相关建议，对我过房地产行业上市公司的财务风险预警具有一定的指导意义。关键词：财务风险预警：房地产行业上市公司：Logistic回归模型The Empirical Study of Financial Risk Early Warning Model-Taking Chinese real estate industry as an exampleAbstractThe real estate industry is an indispensable part of a country's economic prosperity.Inrecent years,the vigorous development of my country's real estate industry has madesignificant contributions and played a crucial role in promoting urbanization developmentand reducing the proportion of agricultural population.In this context,real estate companiesthat have gone public through IPOs have sprung up.Under the national macroeconomiccontrol,the development of my country's real estate industry is faced with problems such asdeclining sales volume,excessive financial leverage,and real estate dysfunction,which hasaccelerated the formation of corporate financial crises and created greater resistance tocorporate development.The formation of financial crisis is not an overnight thing,but agradual process.Therefore,for listed companies in the real estate industry,financial riskmanagement is one of the issues that cannot be underestimated.It is of great significanceand value to establish a sound financial early warning model.Only financially soundcompanies can achieve stability in the future.Based on the above background,this paper adopts a combination of theoreticalanalysis and empirical analysis to study the financial risk early warning of listed companiesin my country's real estate industry.In terms of theory,this paper analyzes and summarizesrelevant research at home and abroad,summarizes the reasons why my country's real estateindustry is in financial crisis,and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of differentfinancial early warning models.In terms of empirical evidence,this paper takes the A-sharereal estate listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2001 to 2021as the research object,referring to relevant literature research,and selects 24 real estatecompanies from solvency,operating ability,development ability,profitability and cash flowability.The study has reached the following conclusions:most of the financial indicators ofChinese real estate industry do not obey the normal distribution,profitability and solvencyare the two main factors constituting the financial risk of