我国P2P贷款与银行贷款的动态因果关系

北京理工大学珠海学院2020届本科生毕业论文The Causal Relationship between P2P loans and bank loans in ChinaAbstractThe purpose of this paper is testing the causal relationship between bank loans(BL)andpeer-to-peer loans(P2PL)in eight major areas of China between January 2014 and December2019.These eight major Chinese areas include Guangdong,Beijing,Zhejiang,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Shandong,Hubei and Sichuan.In the research process,we use unit root test(ADF/PPand KPSS)to test the stationary of the data.A multivariate panel Granger causality test isused because the dependency and heterogeneity across areas might exist.The empiricalresults show that the cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across these regionsprovide evidence that the relationship between P2PL and BL cannot be generalized.In threeof these eight major areas (Jiangsu,Shandong and Hubei),the P2PL leading hypothesisrelationship supports evidence,while the evidence is supported for the BL leading hypothesisin three of these eight major areas (Zhejiang,Shanghai and Shandong).At the same time,aninteractive causal relationship between BL and P2PL is found in Shandong.In addition,theresult in the areas such as Guangdong,Beijing and Sichuan supports the neutrality hypothesis.These findings imply that each region should develop its own P2PL policies.They can givethe governments of these areas important policy implications as well.Keywords:P2PL;BL;Bootstrap multivariate panel Granger causality;China