我国外汇储备变化对a股市场波动趋势的影响分析

我国外汇储备变化对A股市场波动趋势的影响分析摘要外汇储备作为国际储备中的一个重要的组成部分，其作用主要是用于调节一个国家的宏观经济运行状况。一国持有适度的外汇储备量不仅有利于维持其国家汇率的稳定，还能够弥补本国的国际收支逆差，为国家提供更好的经济安全保障。随着2007年中国投资有限责任公司的成立，外汇储备已经成为中国学术界和法学界的关注的焦点。外汇储备不仅是经济问题，也是重要的法律问题。近年来，人民币进一步发展，汇率也在发生变化。在2020年国际金融市场剧烈波动后，2021年世界疫病继续推动外汇市场，人民币汇率波动下降，人民币国际化进程加快，汇率市场逐步推进。研究外汇储备和证券交易的关系对于维持未来金融市场的稳定和金融市场的规范风险有重要意义。外汇储备并不是越多越好。经研究发现，一个国家若持有过度的外汇储备规模的话，不仅会使得外汇资产被闲置造成浪费，更有甚至将会导致其国家通货膨胀风险的增加等问题，这一现象尤其发生在发展中国家。自1994年以来，中国的外汇储备规模逐年增加呈快速增长趋势。外汇储备太多是我国现在的主要问题。本文基于2015-2021年上证综合股指，利用ADF检验和Granger因果检验研究了中国外汇储备波动与A股市场股价波动之间的相关性，并得出了相应的结论。外汇储备的增加对A股市场股价波动影响得传导机制比较复杂，而且我国得政策调整具有突发性及调整力度较大等特点，对流入股市中的货币资金也有着很强的监督限制，这些都显著增加了股市的波动性。关键词：外汇储备A股市场股价波动AbstractAs an important part of international reserves,foreign exchange reserves aremainly used to adjust a country's macroeconomic operation.A country holding anappropriate amount of foreign exchange reserves is not only conducive to maintainingthe stability of its national exchange rate,but also can make up for its internationalbalance of payments deficit and provide a better economic security for the country.With the establishment of China Investment Co.,Ltd.in 2007,foreign exchangereserves have become the focus of Chinese academic and legal circles.Foreignexchange reserve is not only an economic issue,but also an important legal issue.Inrecent years,with the further development of RMB,the exchange rate is alsochanging.After the drastic fluctuations in the international financial market in 2020,the world epidemic continued to promote the foreign exchange market in 2021,thefluctuation of RMB exchange rate decreased,the process of RMB internationalizationaccelerated,and the exchange rate market was gradually promoted.Studying therelationship between foreign exchange reserves and securities trading is of greatsignificance for maintaining the stability of financial markets and regulating risks infinancial markets in the future.Foreign exchange reserves are not the more the better.Especially for developing countries,excessive foreign exchange reserves will lead tothe increase of domestic inflation risk and the idle waste of foreign exchange assets.Since 1994,China's foreign exchange reserves have increased year by year.Too muchforeign exchange reserve is the main problem in China.Based on the Shanghaicomposite stock index from 2015 to 2021,this paper uses ADF test and Grangercausality test to study the correlation between the fluctuation of China's foreignexchange reserves and the stock price fluctuation of A-share market,and draws thecorresponding conclusions.The transmission mechanism of the impact of the increaseof foreign exchange reserves on the stock price fluctuation of A-share market isrelatively complex,and China's policy adjustment has the characteristics of suddenand large adjustment strength,and there are strong supervision restrictions on themonetary funds flowing into the stock market,which have significantly increased thevolatility of the stock market.Key words:foreign exchange reserves A-share ma