经济政策不确定性、成本结构与盈余波动

经济政策不确定性、成本结构与盈余波动摘要持续性与波动性是研究企业盈余的核心指标，反映了盈余信息的质量水准，与公司价值具有显著的相关性。本研究主要关注企业报告盈余的波动性，用以表现企业自身面临的风险。金融危机之后，全球经济进入疲软期，我国实体经济成本竞争力持续下降。为缓解全球性的经济冲击对中国实体经济发展造成的压力，中国政府在扩大内需的同时加强各行业供给侧的结构性改革，并于2010年将产业结构调整作为工作重点。自2010年起，经济政策调整的频率显著增强，经济政策不确定性的程度空前增加。公司经营环境会受到经济政策的不确定性的极大影响，此时其容易面临更高的经营风险，进而使企业的销售收入水平产生波动，最终体现为企业一段时期内盈余的波动性。同时，基于国内外学者对企业成本行为理论的相关研究，成本结构对于缓解外部需求冲击的影响具有显著作用，可能会降低由于经济政策不确定性所导致的企业盈余与销售收入一起变动的协同运动关系。本研究在此基础上根据中国当前实际情况，以2010-2018年中国沪深A股市场除金融业以外的所有上市公司为样本，利用其季度财务数据，研究中国经济政策不确定性是否能够显著影响企业的盈余波动性，并且从企业成本行为的角度研究了成本结构对上述关系的调节效应。此外，进一步探究了企业最终控制人是否为国有、地区市场化水平程度以及内部代理问题的差异化影响。最后，进行了中介效应检验，以数据说明中国经济政策不确定性影响上市公司盈余波动性的具体作用路径。实证检验结果表明：经济政策不确定性越高，公司的盈余波动性越强。但随着企业成本结构弹性的增强，前者对后者造成的冲击会被成本结构弱化，体现为成本结构的调节效应。且对于最终控制人为国有、地区市场化水平相对较高、内部代理问题相对严重的企业而言，弹性成本结构的调节效应更为显著。当经济政策不确定性变大之时，公司容易出现经营风险，尤其是其盈余波动会受到较大影响，而企业的成本结构弹性是一种关键的风险抵御因素，其能够减弱公司盈余波动受到的这种影响。中介效应的实证检验结果表明，当经济政策不确定性变大之时，其会通过对公司现金持有水平以及需求不确定性进行影响来冲击公司盈余波动，促使其显著提升。关键词：成本结构：经济政策不确定性：盈余波动性：市场化水平AbstractPersistence and volatility are the core indicators of corporate earnings,which reflect thequality level of earnings information and have a significant correlation with corporate value.This study mainly focuses on the volatility of reported earnings to show the risks faced byenterprises.After the financial crisis,the global economy entered a weak period,and the costcompetitiveness of China's real economy continued to decline.In this case,in order toprevent the development of China's real economy from being greatly affected by the globaleconomic impact,the Chinese government has taken two measures:first,actively expanddomestic demand;Second,actively carry out supply side reform.By 2010,China began toturn its attention to the optimization of industrial structure,and the frequency of adjustingeconomic policies was higher and higher,which greatly increased the uncertainty ofeconomic policies.The company's business environment will be greatly affected by the uncertainty ofeconomic policies.At this time,it is easy to face higher business risks,which will lead to thefluctuation of the enterprise's sales revenue level,which is finally reflected in the fluctuationof the enterprise's surplus for a period of time.At the same time,through the collection andanalysis of various research results on enterprise cost behavior theory,it is found that thecost structure plays a significant role in alleviating the impact of external demand impact,which may reduce the cooperative movement relationship between enterprise surplus andsales revenue caused by economic policy uncertainty.On this basis,according to the currentactual situation in China,this study selects the listed enterprises (excluding the financialindustry)in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market as the research sample,collectstheir quarterly financial data from 2010 to 2018,and studies whether China's economicpolicy uncertainty can significantly affect the earnings volatility of enterprises,It also studiesthe regulatory effect of cost structure on the above relationshi