贵阳市的房地产预测与分析

贵阳市的房地产预测与分析摘要房价一直是全社会的热点问题，与个人、家庭、单位甚至国家都密切相关。随着社会的发展，中国人对于房地产的需求也越来越高。本文以贵阳商品住宅均价作为因变量，将GDP、房地产施工面积、人口密度、房地产开发投资额4个指标作为自变量，通过多元线性回归方程建立了房价模型。最后，我们使用回归模型预测房价。当在抑制贵阳市2020的商品房的平均价格时，发现预测值接近实际值，进一步使得回归模型得到肯定。关键词：房地产：多元线性回归：人口密度：房地产施工面积：预测abstractHousing price has always been a hot issue in the whole society,and it is closely related toindividuals,families,work units and even the country.With the development of society,Chinesepeople's demand for real estate is also getting higher and higher.This paper takes the averageprice of commercial residential buildings in Guiyang as the dependent variable,including GDP,real estate construction area,population density and real estate development investment as theindependent variables,and establishes the housing price model through multiple linearregression equation.Finally,we used a regression model to predict house prices.When theaverage price of commercial housing in Guiyang 2020 is suppressed,it is found that thepredicted value is close to the actual value,which further affirms the regression model.Key words:real estate;multiple linear regression;population density;real estateconstruction area:forecast2目录1绪论11.1研究背景.11.2文献综述.11.2.1国外对房价的研究综述.11.2.2国内对房价的研究综述.21.3研究的目的和意义.313.1研究目的….31.3.2研究意义…31.4研究内容及本文思路031.4.1研究内容31.4.2本文思路42房价分析与预测相关理论与多元线性回归方程理论，.42.1经济理论.42.1.1房地产市场有效性理论42.1.2灰色关联理论.….522多元线性回归方程理论.53贵阳市房地产业现状分析…3.1贵阳经济发展概况…4.63.2贵阳市房地产业现状63.2.1房地产及其特点….63.2.2房地产价格的构成73.2.3房地产投资、开发、销售情况.84贵阳市房价预测的模型建立及预测….84.1模型预测指标体系的建立…84.2贵阳市房价的预测….94.2.1多元线性回归模型的建立.94.2.2多元线性回归模型的估佔计与检验114.2.3预测115总结.12参考文献.12致谢.…14