基于arima模型的我国房地产预测分析

摘要随着我国改革开放政策的深入推进，城镇化水平逐步提升，人民生活水平不断提高，同时，居民对购房的热情也得到了充分的激发，从而推动了房地产行业的快速发展，一日千里。与此同时，房地产行业的繁荣也带动了其他产业的发展，如建筑业等。作为我国经济的重要产业之一，房地产市场持续蓬勃发展，其对国民经济的巨大贡献甚至对其他相关行业的发展产生了深远的影响，一旦出现问题，就可能引发连锁反应，波及整个行业。自2016年起，为了遏制房地产市场的投机行为，政府实施了一系列政策措施，以推动房地产市场的降温。2020年，受新冠疫情影响，房地产市场出现波动，但在政策刺激下逐渐回暖。产业经济结构不断被各种新思路、各项新政策调整着，房地产行业仍处于严峻的发展环境中，仍面临着许多新的挑战。本文在基于国内外学者研究基础上，以国内经济发展形势为背景，探究房地产行业的发展现状，并从房地产价格的方面入手，分析影响房地产价格的因素，选取《中国统计年鉴2022》中有关房地产价格的相关数据，通过Eviews软件运用时间序列分析的方法进行研究分析，构建ARMA模型，预测我国房地产价格的趋势，为我国政府、企业和公众提供科学的决策参考，以推动房地产行业的健康发展及规范化管理。【关键词】ARIMA模型：预测：房地产ABSTRACTWith the deepening of China's reform and opening-up policy,the level of urbanisation hasgradually increased and people's living standards have continued to improve,while residents'enthusiasm for home ownership has also been fully stimulated,thus driving the rapiddevelopment of the real estate industry by leaps and bounds.At the same time,the prosperity ofthe real estate industry has also led to the development of other industries,such as theconstruction industry.As one of the key industries in China's economy,the real estate market hascontinued to flourish and its huge contribution to the national economy has even had a profoundimpact on the development of other related industries,which could trigger a chain reaction thatwould affect the entire industry should problems arise.Since 2016,the government hasimplemented a series of policy measures to curb speculation in the real estate market in order topromote a cooling of the market.2020 saw fluctuations in the real estate market due to theimpact of the New Crown epidemic,but it gradually rebounded under policy stimulation.Theindustrial and economic structure is constantly being adjusted by various new ideas and variousnew policies,and the real estate industry is still in a tough development environment and stillfaces many new challenges.Based on the research of scholars at home and abroad,this paper explores the development statusof the real estate industry against the background of the domestic economic developmentsituation,and starts from the aspect of real estate prices,analyses the factors affecting real estateprices,selects the relevant data about real estate prices in the China Statistical Yearbook 2022,uses the method of time series analysis through Eviews software to conduct research andanalysis,constructs The ARIMA model is used to forecast the trend of real estate prices in China,providing scientific reference for decision making for the government,enterprises and the publicin China,in order to promote the healthy development and standardised management of the realestate industry.[Key WordsI ARIMA models and forecasting;real estate目录第1章引言…11.1研究背景与研究意义.11.1.1研究背景11.1.2研究目的及意义21.2研究方法及思路31.2.1研究方法31.2.2研究思路.41.3文献综述..5第2章理论基础62.1预测方法.62.1.1定性分析.62.1.2定量分析62.2 ARIMA模型72.2.1 ARIMA模型简介72.2.2 ARIMA模型的优缺点.72.2.3 ARIMA模型运用流程.8第3章房地产行业发展现状.93.1房地产行业概况分析.93.2房地产行业发展的影响因素.93.2.1供需关系093.2.2成本因素03.2.3政策因素…10第4章模型构建.134.1数据预处理134.1.1样本数据.......................134.1.2平