基于ARIMA模型的我国房地产价格预测分析

摘要伴随着改革开放政策的开展与深入，我国城镇化水平逐步提高，人民生活水平上涨的同时，居民的购房热情也得到了充分的刺激，致使房地产行业“一日行千里”，飞速发展。房地产市场持续发展，作为我国的支柱产业之一，房地产业对国民经济做出了巨大的贡献，甚至影响着其他相关行业的发展，牵一发而动全身。2016年以来，为了抑制房地产的投机行为，控制房价上涨，政府出台了一系列政策促使房地产市场降温。2020年，受新冠疫情影响，房地产市场出现波动，但在政策刺激下逐渐回暖。产业经济结构不断被各种新思路、各项新政策调整着，房地产行业仍处于严峻的发展环境中，仍面临着许多新的挑战。本文在基于国内外学者研究基础上，结合国内经济发展形势研究房地产行业的发展现状，从房地产价格的角度切入，分析影响房地产价格的因素，选取《中国统计年鉴2022》中的关于房地产价格的相关数据，通过Eviews软件运用时间序列分析的方法进行研究分析，构建ARMA模型，预测我国房地产价格趋势，为中国政府、企业和公众提供科学的决策参考，以推动房地产行业的健康发展及规范化管理。【关键词】ARIMA模型：预测：房地产ABSTRACTWith the development and deepening of the reform and opening up policy,the level ofurbanization in China has been gradually improved and people's living standards have risen atthe same time,residents'enthusiasm for house purchase has been fully stimulated,resulting inthe real estate industry "a thousand li in a day",rapid development.The sustainable developmentof real estate market,as one of the pillar industries in our country,real estate industry has madegreat contribution to national economy,even affecting the development of other relatedindustries.Since 2016,the government has introduced a series of policies to limit housing pricesand curb speculation to cool the property market.In 2020,the real estate market fluctuated dueto the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic,but gradually recovered under the policystimulus.The industrial economic structure is constantly being adjusted by a variety of new ideas,new policies,the real estate industry is still in a severe development environment,still facingmany new challenges.Based on the research of domestic and foreign scholars and combined with the developmentsituation of domestic economy,this paper studies the development status of the real estateindustry,analyzes the factors affecting the real estate price from the perspective of real estateprice,selects the relevant data of real estate price in China Statistical Yearbook 2022,and adoptsthe method of time series analysis.Eviews software is used to conduct research and analysis,andARIMA model is constructed to predict the trend of Chinese real estate prices,so as to providescientific decision-making reference for Chinese government,enterprises and the public,so as topromote the healthy development and standardized management of the real estate industry.[Key Words ARIMA models and forecasting;real estate目录第1章引言11.1研究背景与研究意义11.1.】研究背景…11.1.2研究目的及意义21.2研究方法及思路….31.2.1研究方法.。0031.2.2研究思路…41.3文献综述….5第2章理论基础.62.1预测方法..62.1.1定性分析.62.1.2定量分析..62.2 ARIMA模型….72.2.1 ARIMA模型简介.72.2.2 ARIMA模型的优缺点72.2.3 ARIMA模型运用流程.8第3章房地产行业发展现状.93.1房地产行业概况分析.93.2房地产行业发展的影响因素.93.2.1供需关系.93.2.2成本因素….103.2.3政策因素.10第4章模型构建.134.1数据预处理….134.1.1样本数据.134.1.2平稳性检验144.2模型识别…164.3参数估计及显著性检验164.4模型优化26第5章序列预测28第6章结论及建议30参考文献32致谢.。.33