内蒙古数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构的影响——基于产业结构的中介效应分析

目录引言…2一、理论分析与研究假设5(一)理论基础.....51.消费需求层次理论52.预防性储蓄理论....63.金融可持续发展理论………………6(二)数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构的直接影响分析与假设..·6(三)数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构的间接影响分析与假设.·.·7二、实证研究设计...…….7(一)变量说明、测度与分析71.变量说明.…72.变量测度…9(1)被解释变量(Cons)的测度0.9(2)解释变量(nder)的测度..(3)中介变量(Su)的测度9(4)控制变量的测度.............93.变量的描述性分析104.相关性分析.....10(二)数据来源及初步检验111.数据来源..........112.初步检验...11(1)多重共线性检验11(2)单位根检验.....12(三)模型构建.12三、模型的估计与检验..........12(一)模型参数估计、检验与结果分析12(二)模型估计结果检验..........131.统计检验...13(1)拟合优度检验.....13(2)显著性检验..…132.稳健性检验...…14(2)间接影响稳健性检验。14(三)模型估计结果分析.….151.内蒙古数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构的直接影响分析..152.内蒙古数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构的间接影响分析..·15四、结论与政策建议16(一)主要结论16(二)对策建议...16参考文献.…17致谢20内蒙古数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构的影响基于产业结构的中介效应分析作者：祁昱指导教师：李敏纳（教授）(海南师范大学经济与管理学院，海口，571158)摘要：改苹开放四十多年来，我国经济高速发展，农村居民消费水平显著提高，但由于中国农村人口基数大，导致农村居民消费结构升级滞后，而数字普惠金融是优化农村居民消费结构的重要手段之一，内蒙古作为传统的农业大省，也面临着农村居民消费结构层次较低的现状。在此背景下，研究内蒙古数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构的影响具有重要现实意义。本文对内蒙古数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结枸的影响进行理论分析，在此基础上利用2011-2021内蒙古12个地级市的面板数据，建立固定效应模型，实证考察数字普惠金融对农村居民消费结构升级的直接机制和间接机制，通过实证分析，得出了如下结论：内蒙古数字普惠金融可以通过直接机制和间接机制优化农村居民消费结构，产业结构在其中发挥部分中介效应。在经过一系列稳健性检验后，该结论依然成立。因此，需要提高基础信息设备的配置、加大对乡村地区开展数字化普惠金融活动的认识和培训、充分利用互联网渠道对农村居民的消费习惯进行改善和塑造，以提升其消费行为的品质和水平等政策建议。关键词：数字普惠金融：消费结构：产业结构；中介效应；内蒙古The impact of digital inclusive finance on theconsumption structure of rural residents in Inner Mongolia--Analysis of intermediary effect based on industrialstructureAuthor:Qi Yu Supervisor:LiMinna(Professor)(School of Economics and Management,Hainan NormalUniversity,Haikou,571158)Abstract:Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China's economy has developedrapidly,and the consumption level of rural residents has increased significantly.However,due tothe large rural population base in China,the upgrading of the consumption structure of ruralresidents lags behind,and digital inclusive finance is one of the important means to optimize theconsumption structure of rural residents.As a traditional agricultural province,Inner Mongolia isalso faced with the status quo of low consumption structure of rural residents.In this context,it isof great practical significance to study the influence of Inner Mongolia's digital inclusive financeon the consumption structure of rural residents.This paper makes a theoretical analysis of theimpact of digital inclusive finance on the consumption structure of rural residents in InnerMongolia.Based on the panel data of 12 prefecture-level cities in Inner Mongolia from 2011 to2021,a fixed-effect model is established to empirically investigate the direct and indirectmechanisms of digital inclusive finance on the upgrading of rural residents'consumption structure.Through the empirical analysis,the following important conclusions are drawn:Inner Mongolia'sdigital inclusive finance can optimize the consumption structure of rural residents through directmechanism and indirect mechanism,in which industrial structure plays a complete intermediaryeffect.After a series of robustness tests,the conclusion is still valid.Therefore,it is necessary toimprove the configuration of basic