互联网时代下消费金融对经济增长的影响研究

互联网时代下消费金融对经济增长的影响研究摘要2021年中国互联网消费金融行业放款规模达到20.2万亿元，余额规模达到5.8万亿元。近年来，中国国民经济持续高速增长，为居民生活水平的提升奠定了基础，也使得居民对未来生活水平抱有乐观期待，逐步提升的居民消费水平为消费金融行业的蓬勃发展提供了沃土。从狭义消费信贷余额规模上看，这指标已经从2014年的4.2万亿元上升到2021年末的17万亿元，年复合增长率达22.1%。未来，在消费作为推动GDP增长“三驾马车”中的主力驱动这一基本趋势保持不变的前提下，国内消费环境逐渐丰富，消费场景多元化和消费产品升级化也将继续刺激居民消费，中国狭义消费信贷余额将继续保持增长态势。预计未来几年，中国狭义消费信贷余额规模将以7.9%的年复合增长率增速持续增长，到2026年将接近25万亿元。文章基于2010一2019年省级面板数据，通过设置虚拟变量将互联网消费金融纳入分析框架，进而结合作用机制与中介效应检验程序实证分析消费金融对经济增长产生的影响。研究结果表明：消费金融总体上能够促进我国经济增长，且互联网消费金融与传统金融对我国经济增长的作用程度存在差异性：在消费金融促进经济增长的作用机制中，消费起到了一定的中介效应。据此，社会各界应通力合作，深化消费金融市场改革，加强产品及服务创新，普及信贷消费理念，推动消费金融良序发展。关键词：消费金融：互联网：国民经济AbstractIn 2021,the loan scale of China's Internet consumer finance industry reached20.2 trillion yuan,and the balance scale reached 5.8 trillion yuan.In recent years,thesustained and rapid growth of China's national economy has laid the foundation forthe improvement of residents'living standards,and also made residents haveoptimistic expectations for the future living standards.The gradually risingconsumption level of residents has provided fertile ground for the vigorousdevelopment of the consumer finance industry.In terms of the scale of consumercredit balance in a narrow sense,this indicator has increased from 4.2 trillion yuan in2014 to 17 trillion yuan at the end of 2021,with a compound annual growth rate of22.1%.In the future,on the premise that the basic trend of consumption as the maindriver of the "troika"driving GDP growth remains unchanged,the domesticconsumption environment will be gradually enriched,the diversification ofconsumption scenarios and the upgrading of consumer products will also continue tostimulate residents'consumption,and China's narrow consumer credit balance willcontinue to grow.It is expected that in the next few years,China's narrow consumercredit balance will continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.9%,andwill be close to 25 trillion yuan by 2026.Based on the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019,this paper puts Internetconsumer finance into the analysis framework by setting dummy variables,and thenempirically analyzes the impact of consumer finance on economic growth bycombining the action mechanism and intermediary effect test procedure.The resultsshow that consumer finance can promote China's economic growth on the whole,andthere are differences between Internet consumer finance and traditional finance onChina's economic growth;In the mechanism of consumer finance promotingeconomic growth,consumption plays a certain intermediary effect.Therefore,allsectors of society should work together to deepen the reform of consumer financemarket,strengthen product and service innovation,popularize the concept of creditIIconsumption,and promote the orderly development of consumer finance.Key words:consumer finance;internet;national economyIII目录目录摘要..Abstract....II第一章绪论1第一节研究背景与研究意义。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。100111111111.11,。。11.1.1研究背景1.1.2研究意义2第二节研究思路与方法21.2.1研究思路21.2.2研究内容21.2.3论文框架51.2.4研究方法6第三节不足之处6第二章理论基础与文献综述7第一节相关概念界定..