直播带货在赋能乡村振兴中的风险探析和完善路径

直播带货在赋能乡村振兴中的风险探析和完善路径摘要随着网络的广泛应用、直播带货的迅速发展和居民消费市场的变化，利用直播带货购买农产品已成为普遍态势，涉农直播带货有效的联系了农业与消费者，为农业发展创造了新的发展机遇。涉农直播带货的开展，将加速赋能乡村振兴新农村的数字化发展，并有效助力系列农产品特色品牌的继续热销，促进脱贫攻坚与赋能乡村振兴的衔接。可以说，“直播带货”是乡村赋能、数字经济发展、乡村治理接地气的有益尝试。本文通过采用文献研究法，对直播带货场景下的直播重点环节风险进行了识别。通过分析直播带货中重点环节的风险和其下的危险因素，将直播带货场景下的直播重点环节风险界定为原材料供给环节风险、产品制造环节风险、运输仓储环节风险、信息化风险和直播运营风险，进而研究了这五个风险的不同指标，并运用VensimPLE软件绘制因果关系图，分析不同指标间的交叉关联。并通过实证模拟仿真结果发现，原材料供给环节风险相对于各重点环节风险变化较大，而物流管理系统的风险变化趋势与总体一致，虽然在后期也可能出现了一些偏差但差异不大。通过观察对重点环节分析可以发现，最主要的风险因素是产品供给环节，其次为加工及生产过程风险，说明这两种风险对直播带货运作过程影响比较大。直播带货事故多见于对农产品质量把节控制不良，质量急剧下降，甚至还有在直播过程中的小事故等。根据模式中对直播间的运营风险方程设定，其时间延迟比较短，且不确定性因素很多，还存在着一定量的突发性，所以为了避免直播带货中的运营风险，针对涉农带货直播中各环节存在的风险，提出了构建全域农村直播电子商务的监管体系、科学谋划涉农直播带货的顶层设计系统、统筹构建农村直播电子商务的配套制度等风险控制措施降低直播风险等路径。关键词：直播带货；赋能乡村；风险探析AbstractWith the wide application of the Internet,the rapid development of livebroadcast delivery and the changes in the consumer market,the use of livebroadcast delivery to purchase agricultural products has become a commontrend.Agriculture-related live broadcast delivery has effectively linkedagriculture and consumers,creating a new environment for agriculturaldevelopment.new development opportunities.The development ofagriculture-related live broadcasts will accelerate the digital developmentof empowering rural revitalization and new rural areas,and will effectivelyhelp a series of characteristic brands of agricultural products continue tosell well,promoting the connection between poverty alleviation andempowering rural revitalization.It can be said that "live broadcast withgoods"is a beneficial attempt for rural empowerment,digital economydevelopment,and rural governance to be grounded.This paper uses the literature research method to identify the risks ofkey links of live broadcast in the scene of live broadcast with goods.Byanalyzing the risks of the key links in the live delivery of goods and theunderlying risk factors,the risks of the key links of the live broadcast in thelive delivery of goods scenario are defined as the risk of raw materialsupply,product manufacturing,transportation and storage link risk,informatization risk and live broadcast.Operational risk,and then studiedthe different indicators of these five risks,and used VensimPLE software todraw a causal relationship diagram to analyze the cross-correlation betweendifferent indicators.And through the empirical simulation results,it isfound that the risk of the raw material supply link changes more than therisk of each key link,while the risk change trend of the logisticsmanagement system is consistent with the overall trend,although there maybe some deviations in the later stage,but the difference is not large.Through observation and analysis of key links,it can be found that the mostimportant risk factor is the product supply link,followed by the processingand production process risks,indicating that these two risks have a greaterimpact on the operation process of live broadcast and delivery.Accidents oflive-broadcasting with goods are more co